Poorer tourists could still bring riches to Latin America

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MEXICO CITY (AFP) - As stock markets sink and fears grow of a global recession, Latin America is banking on gains as well as losses from tourists tightening their purse strings.

From Mexico's Mayan pyramids to Chilean glaciers, with beaches, jungle and ancient cities in between, the region is a major draw for foreign visitors, particularly from United States.

And although tourism professionals expect many to revise their travel plans in coming months, they also hope US travellers will turn to destinations closer to home, made cheaper as their currencies fall.

"First people cancel everything, then they analyze the situation and downgrade their choices: they change from a five star hotel to a four star, or from 20 days to 15," said Luis Pena, from Argentina's Association of Hotels, Restaurants and Cafes.

Fifteen percent of reservations have already been cancelled, Pena said.

"Given the figures from the main operators in other countries, like Brazil, it's very likely that we'll see a 25 percent drop (later)."

The Brazilian Association of Travel Agencies said it was too early to predict whether the country, which receives some five million foreign visitors per year, would win or lose in a worsening economic climate.

"With the devaluation of the real, Brazil is quite a bit cheaper," said Leonel Rossi, the group's secretary of international affairs.

"But we haven't seen (positive) results of that yet because, faced with the international crisis, it's counterbalanced by travellers' worries about the future."

"The biggest impact will be in 2009," added Janine Pires, president of Brazil's Embratur state tourism board.

Further west, Chile's operators said the crisis had not yet shown an impact.

"There's not a drop in tourist activity, only a worry," said Lorena Arriagada, executive secretary of the Chilean Association of Tourism Companies.

In many countries, figures for foreign visitors showed healthy gains in the first part of the year, including Peru -- up 12 percent in the first semester -- where half of all visitors come to visit the Inca site of Machu Picchu.

Estimates suggest Peru will receive a record 2.1 million foreign visitors in 2008, some 10 percent higher than the previous year, said Eduardo Arrarte from the National Tourism Chamber.

But he added: "In the long run, some tourists who planned to come will cancel their trips, mostly Americans."

Many hoped that wealthier US tourists would drop plans for overseas trips and explore their own continent instead, particularly Mexico , where the United States already provides 73 percent of its closest neighbor's annual 22 million foreign tourists.

"It's important to keep promoting Mexico in the United States, where travellers will no doubt seek closer and cheaper destinations like Mexico , instead of going on long trips to Asia, Africa and Europe," said a consultant to Mexico's tourism office.

Due to the tumbling peso, " Mexico could also be more attractive to Europeans. We'll see at the end of December if the crisis has a positive or negative impact," said Miguel Torruco, President of the National Tourism Confederation.

The economic climate within Mexico would count the most, however.

Mexican tourists fill 84 percent of the country's hotels and bring in 63 billion dollars annually, compared with 13 billion from foreigners, Torruco said.