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Uxbridge, Canada - Climate change will dramatically increase the number of hot, dry days in Mexico in the coming decades, while coastal regions like the Yucatán, in the southeast, will be swamped by sea levels that are half a metre higher than today, a new study has found.

By 2030, Mexico's average daily temperature is likely to climb 1.4 degrees Celsius above what has been the average for the past 30 years. By 2090, this increase could rocket upwards by 4.1 degrees, virtually guaranteeing hot days and nights for 80 to 90 percent of the year, says the Oxford University study financed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Cold weather will become very rare in Mexico according to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an umbrella organisation of scientists from around the world and the preeminent authority on climate change.

"Mexico is one area of the world where all the computer climate models agree," says Carol McSweeney of the School of Geography and Environment at Oxford.

Computer climate models incorporate the physics of the atmosphere and, often, the ocean, sea ice and land surface as well, to project what the future climate may be as carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat in the atmosphere.

The IPCC, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, used the data from two dozen different climate models powered by the world's fastest supercomputers to issue its landmark Fourth Assessment Report last year.

That report warned the world that carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are causing the current rise in global temperatures that could hike the global average temperature 4.5 degrees C by 2100.

But McSweeney and her Oxford colleagues wondered: what does that mean for individual countries? With UNDP funding, they have used the IPCC climate model data to determine the potential changes in the climate of 52 developing nations.

The study, presented Nov. 5, includes five Latin American countries: Cuba, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Nicaragua.

"We thought it was important to boil down all that complex data and create a summary report of what the data shows," McSweeney told Tierramérica.

In rare universal agreement, the highly complex models show Mexico will get much hotter and drier and that this will happen soonest in the north and central regions of the country, says McSweeney.

Climate change has already made the country warmer by about 0.6 C since 1960, according to the study. The number of hot days increased by 36 per year between 1960 and 2003.

Hot days are defined as the warmest 10 percent of the days over a 30-year span and are "what people normally would consider to be quite hot," McSweeney explained.

By 2060, one-third of all days will be "hot" by current standards, and by 2090 more than half the year will be like the hottest days of the year presently. On a regional basis, central and northern Mexico (including Mexico City) are projected to experience temperatures that are six and seven degrees higher than the current norm.

Cold days will be exceedingly rare by 2090 -- perhaps just three or four days a year.

The main purpose of the study is to fill in the gaps of information of climate change in developing countries.

In Mexico, "it hasn't been easy" to provide climate information, and "we still can't completely rely on it," Juan González, coordinator of the doctoral programme in environmental law at the Autonomous Metropolitan University, told Tierramérica.

"The federal government and the states make measurements using different methodologies, and in many cases they aren't compatible," González added.

The Oxford study shows that the mean rainfall over the entire country has not changed since 1960, although there are wide regional variations. The number of intense or heavy rainfall events has increased by about 1.2 percent per decade.

But all models show a reduction in annual rainfall between three and 15 percent by 2090. Regional variations are difficult to predict because the models cannot simulate tropical cyclones, hurricanes or the cyclical El Niño/La Niña climate events, McSweeney pointed out.

"These projections must be used with caution and awareness of their shortcomings," she said.

Future regional rainfall estimates are one of those shortcomings, says Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

But Schmidt told Tierramérica that the UNDP/Oxford report "is a useful summary in terms of letting people in these countries know what is coming."

One other caveat is that these reports do not reflect sea level rise from climate change. The IPCC acknowledges that its data did not include the melting of the world's glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic, says Schmidt, who is a member of the IPCC.

The ice melt is adding measurably to the sea level rise from thermal expansion of the oceans, he said. That is likely to mean greater impacts from ocean erosion and storm surges on flat, low-lying areas such as the Yucatán Peninsula, where the sea could rise as much as 56 centimetres.

The data also shows that in tropical and sub-tropical countries, warm season temperatures will be hotter than anything ever experienced previously starting as soon as 2050.

"It's important to understand that these will be unprecedented conditions," said Schmidt.

McSweeney hopes scientists and policy makers in Mexico review the report and send in their feedback or use the freely available IPCC climate model data to do their own analyses.

"We hope this is useful information, but further study is needed before making any policy decisions," she said.

The problem, said González, is that "Mexico still has short-term plans in which climate change is mentioned as a reference. There is no ambitious, realistic plan for developing alternative energy and changing course."

In fact, "a reform was just approved for the petroleum industry that reiterates the focus on development based on that finite, greenhouse-gas-generating sector," said González. Oil is Mexico's main source of revenues.

With reporting by Diego Cevallos from Mexico City.

(This story was originally published by Latin American newspapers that are part of the Tierramérica network. Tierramérica is a specialised news service produced by IPS with the backing of the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme and the World Bank.)

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Mexico's Best Cultural Festivals
Judith Gille - LATimes
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Musicians play during the opening of Guadalajara's International Mariachi & Charro Festival.

Many Americans visiting Mexico never venture beyond their palapas, or grass-roofed beach huts, at such popular resorts as Puerto Vallarta, Cancún or Los Cabos.

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But for more adventuresome and curious travelers, Mexico offers an array of colorful festivals. Most combine Catholic ritual with indigenous practices, offering visitors an intimate view of Mexican ceremonies and celebrations. Here's a sampling of the country's finest festivals and cultural events, including the best places to enjoy them.

JANUARY

January Fair and the Festival of San Sebastián the Martyr

Chiapa de Corzo, Chiapas: Despite its origins, this spirited festival is more merrymaking than martyrdom. Highlights of the Fiesta de enero, or January Fair, are hundreds of Parachicos masked dancers sporting exotic wigs, and special dishes. The fair starts in mid-January, and festivities culminate in a staged naval battle on the river Grijalva and a fabulous fireworks display on Jan. 21.

Tip: Accommodations are limited in Chiapa de Corzo, so plan to stay in Tuxtla Gutiérrez (nine miles west). www.travelchiapas.com

FEBRUARY

Candelaria (Candlemas)

San Miguel de Allende: This celebration, marking the midpoint (Feb. 2) between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, is a hybrid of Catholic and indigenous rituals. Juárez Park is a profusion of color with a huge weeklong plant sale.

Tip: Stay at one of San Miguel's many B&Bs, such as Casa de la Cuesta, where your hosts help you gain insider information about cultural festivals. www.internetsanmiguel.com

Veracruz Carnival

Veracruz, Veracruz: Carnaval kicks off with the Quema del Mal Humor, the burning in effigy of bad humor. Daily parades with imaginative floats, coronations of a queen, an ugly king and child king, dances and riotous concerts follow. Gyrating dancers, revelers in outlandish garb, and noisy musicians fill the streets. On Mardi Gras, or Fat Tuesday, the celebrations end with the burial of Juan Carnaval, the symbol of wanton excess and revelry, as the abstinence of Lent begins.

Tip: West Coast residents might find cheaper flights to La Paz or Mazatlán, where they celebrate carnival with similar excess. www.carnaval.com/city

MARCH/APRIL

Palm Sunday Folk Art Market

Uruapan, Michoacán: The largest open-air folk art market in Mexico starts the weekend of Palm Sunday. On Saturday morning, artisans in native dress parade through town to the central plaza, where a week of selling begins.

Tip: The finest handicrafts can be found at the Concurso, a juried exhibition. www.michoacan-travel.com

Holy Week

San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato: Palm Sunday is celebrated with a procession from the Parque Juárez down Sollano Street to the Parroquia church. The week culminates in a Good Friday re-enactment of Christ's persecution in the central plaza. San Miguel's many churches hold extravagant paschal Masses on Saturday evening. In the late morning, people crowd in to watch as papier-mâché figures of Judas, rigged with firecrackers and suspended from wires above the plaza, are exploded.

Tip: Book at least six months in advance; the week before Easter is the busiest for tourism in Mexico. www.internetsanmiguel.com

APRIL/MAY

San Marcos Fair

Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes: Among the oldest in Mexico, the San Marcos Fair is also one of the country's largest and loudest. Beginning in mid-April, this agricultural fair runs for three weeks and features spectacular fireworks displays and a wine pavilion.

Tip: Like many state fairs, this festival covers a large area, so wear good walking shoes. www.aguascalientes.gob.mx

JULY

The Guelaguetza

Oaxaca City, Oaxaca: For lovers of folk music and dance, attending Guelaguetza is an incomparable experience. The modern festival's main attraction is a folk dance competition at the open-air auditorium on Fortin Hill. The Guelaguetza takes place every year on the first two Mondays after the feast of St. Carmen on July 16. For 2009, the dates are July 20 and 27.

Tip: Make sure to catch the Calenda, a colorful musical procession through the city on the Saturday before the first Guelaguetza. www.go-oaxaca.com

SEPTEMBER

International Mariachi and Charro Festival

Guadalajara, Jalisco: Guadalajara teems with visitors during the world's premier mariachi competition, held here in early September. More than 500 mariachi bands participate.

Tip: For those seeking a quiet refuge from days and nights of music and dancing, stay in suburban Tlaquepaque (20 minutes from downtown Guadalajara). www.mariachi-jalisco.com.mx

OCTOBER

International Cervantino Festival

Guanajuato, Guanajuato: Begun in the 1950s as a student tribute to "Don Quixote" author Miguel de Cervantes, the Cervantino has become Mexico's most prestigious arts and music festival. World-renowned artists flock to this European-style colonial city to perform opera, ballet and music, and to exhibit their art during the first three weeks of October.

Tip: Be sure to attend at least one performance at the ornate Benito Juárez Theater, the performance hall named for Mexico's most beloved president. www.guanajuatocapital.com

NOVEMBER

Day of the Dead

Pátzcuaro, Michoacán: While the Day of the Dead is celebrated all over Mexico, the villages surrounding Pátzcuaro are epicenters for activities.

Early on Nov. 1, village cemeteries overflow with people adorning graves with flowers, photos, candles and fruit. The evening atmosphere becomes introspective as families return to hold candlelight vigils.

Tip: The two large cemeteries hugging the main road through the lakeside village of Tzintzuntzan (about 12 miles north of Pátzcuaro) and the crowded island of Janitzio are popular tourist sites. www.patzcuaromexico.com

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER

The Yucatán Bird Festival

Mérida, Yucatán: Bird-watchers have flocked to the Yucatán peninsula for the last six years to count species during the popular three-day event. This annual fund-raiser gives visitors the chance to explore the lovely colonial town of Mérida while attending workshops. www.yucatanbirds.org.mx

Night of the Radishes

Oaxaca City, Oaxaca: Christmastime throughout Mexico is a treat, but Noche de Rábanos, the Night of the Radishes, is a must. Each year on Dec. 23, lowly radishes are transformed into miraculous creations. These piquant root vegetables, some fantastically large, are carved into nativity figures, saints, revolutionaries, animals, dancers and musicians, then displayed in Oaxaca's festively decorated central plaza.

Tip: Snag a table early at one of the numerous sidewalk cafes on the Zócalo for the best view of the evening's festivities. www.go-oaxaca.com

Gille is a freelance writer. travel(at)latimes.com

November 21, 2008 Its Free
Page 1- Mexico News, Features Page 2 - Features Page 3 - Features, Weather, Sports, Exchange, Community Calendar Page 4 - Classifieds Page 5 - Real Estate Jaltemba Travel Mexico Click on ad for more information Go here for details on this home or Go here for more Real Estate	La Peñita Revolution Day Parade Photography by Adam Caddell To view more Revolution Day Photographs click here Mexico News Mexico detains former top anti-drug prosecutor Mexican authorities detained a former top anti-drug prosecutor on Thursday as part of an investigation into possible links between senior law enforcements officials and drug cartels..More Emigration plunged 42 percent in last 2 years amid crackdown in United States Mexican emigration has dropped 42 percent over the last two years, a government study released Thursday showed, confirming that America has become less appealing amid an economic downturn and stepped up raids against illegal migrants..More Earthquake in Mexico felt as far away as Tucson An earthquake initially measured at 5.0 was felt in the Yuma area around 12:25 p.m. Thursday..More US museum head says Mexico should get Mayan jade The director of Harvard's Peabody Museum said Tuesday he wants to return about 50 ancient carved Mayan jade pieces to Mexico, almost a century after a U.S. consul dredged the artifacts from the sacred lake at the ruins of Chichen Itza..More Mayan world a wonder and a puzzle after eons Two stone snakeheads, representations of the Mayan serpent god Kukulcn, watch out from the northern base of El Castillo, the showpiece pyramid in the ancient city of Chichn Itz, here in the Yucatn. Above the heads, 91 impossibly shallow stone steps stretch up into the sky..More Mexico's Los Tuxtlas taps into magical lore As the boat glided over the dark water and wisps of evening fog gathered along the shore, Lake Catemaco, the witchcraft capital of Mexico, began to get spooky. .More Whale Of A Vacation Would you like to take a vacation that takes you to new places, provides unique experiences and allows you to make a difference somewhere in the world? .More Diabetes conference first of its kind in Mexico With diabetes a leading cause of death in Mexico, two Rotary clubs in San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato, organized a conference to bring together medical professionals from both the United States and Mexico to address the issue..More PayPal expands service to Mexican peso Online payment service PayPal Inc. said Tuesday it expanded into Mexico..More Mexico's First Beachfront Active Adult Community A high price for that picture perfect beach home in many popular American sunbelt locations -- along with today's financial turmoil -- means that retirement dream may be quickly fading.More Mexico's central bank sells $400 million in foreign reserves to help falling peso Latin American stocks declined Thursday and Mexico's peso tumbled further after hitting a three-week low amid mounting concerns over the depth of the global financial crisis. .More Interest rates soar as credit tightens in Mexico The Wal-Mart slogan in Mexico is the same as in the USA: Always low prices. 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To read the complete story on Jungle Animals by Tera Spears click here Pride in the Details: Efren Garcia Story and pictures by Tara Spears As more foreigners blissfully purchase their piece of paradise along the fabulous Mexican Pacific coast, an oft heard question on the streets and in cafes is “Can you recommend an honest, good remodeler?” One local craftsman, Efren Garcia Esparza, is in demand because of his trademark quality work, reliability, and fair prices. “My specialty is doing kitchens and bathrooms,” said Efren through a translator. “My wife taught me early (in our marriage) about the importance of a nice kitchen. A woman unhappy with her kitchen is a woman who won’t cook- and I like to eat!” he explained with a grin. After 17 years in the Riviera Nayarit area, Efren’s company, Construccion Garcia, has a long list of satisfied customers. Besides kitchen and bath improvements, Efren also builds entire houses or additions To read the entire story click here the band...MOST WANTED ... Welcome back to all our friends that went home and welcome to all our friends that stay here... we had a nice start at Hinde and Jaimes in la Penita....we will be playing Tuesday at 6 PM ...come and enjoy a great dinner and us.... We are sorry to announce that there will be no more open jams this year....it was great while it lasted.... We are also happy to announce that we had a nice opening at Crazy Nellys.... thanks to all that came out We will be playing at Crazy Nellys in Guayabitos on the highway on Wednesdays ...but starting a little later ..... starting 7 P M ...till 9;30......MOST WANTED...hudd Pictures of the Most Wanted at Hinde and Jaimes and Crazy Nelly's